The following essay is reprinted with permission from Southeast Michigan seemed like the perfect \u201cclimate haven.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cMy family has owned my home since the \u201860s. \u2026 Even when my dad was a kid and lived there, no floods, no floods, no floods, no floods. Until [2021],\u201d one southeast Michigan resident told us. That June, a storm dumped more than\u00a06 inches of rain<\/a>\u00a0on the region, overloading stormwater systems and flooding homes.<\/p>\n That sense of living through unexpected and unprecedented disasters resonates with more Americans each year, we have found in our research into the\u00a0past, present and future of risk and resilience<\/a>.<\/p>\n An analysis of federal disaster declarations for weather-related events puts more data behind the fears \u2013 the average number of disaster declarations has skyrocketed since 2000 to\u00a0nearly twice<\/a>\u00a0that of the preceding 20-year period.<\/p>\n As people question how livable the world will be\u00a0in a warming future<\/a>, a narrative around\u00a0climate migration<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0\u201cclimate havens\u201d<\/a>\u00a0has emerged.<\/p>\n These \u201cclimate havens\u201d are areas touted by\u00a0researchers<\/a>,\u00a0public officials<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0city planners<\/a>\u00a0as natural refuges from extreme climate conditions. Some\u00a0climate havens are already welcoming<\/a>\u00a0people escaping the effects of climate change elsewhere. Many have\u00a0affordable housing<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0legacy infrastructure<\/a>\u00a0from their larger populations before the mid-20th century, when\u00a0people began to leave<\/a>\u00a0as industries disappeared.<\/p>\n But they aren\u2019t disaster-proof \u2013 or necessarily ready for the changing climate.<\/p>\n Some of the\u00a0most cited \u201chavens\u201d in research<\/a>\u00a0by\u00a0national organizations<\/a>\u00a0and in\u00a0news media<\/a>\u00a0are older cities in the Great Lakes region, upper Midwest and Northeast. They include Ann Arbor,\u00a0Michigan<\/a>; Duluth,\u00a0Minnesota<\/a>; Minneapolis; Buffalo,\u00a0New York<\/a>; Burlington,\u00a0Vermont<\/a>; and Madison,\u00a0Wisconsin<\/a>.<\/p>\n Yet each of\u00a0these cities<\/a>\u00a0will likely have to contend with some of the\u00a0greatest temperature increases<\/a>\u00a0in the country in the coming years. Warmer air also has a higher capacity to hold water vapor, causing more frequent, intense and longer duration storms.<\/p>\n
These cities are already feeling the impacts of climate change. In 2023 alone, \u201chaven\u201d regions in\u00a0Wisconsin<\/a>,\u00a0Vermont<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Michigan<\/a>\u00a0suffered significant damage from\u00a0powerful storms<\/a>\u00a0and flooding.<\/p>\n The previous winter was also catastrophic: Lake-effect snow fueled by moisture from the still-open water of Lake Erie dumped over 4 feet of snow on\u00a0Buffalo<\/a>, leaving nearly\u00a050 people dead<\/a>\u00a0and thousands of households without power or heat.\u00a0Duluth<\/a>\u00a0reached near-record snowfall and faced significant flooding as\u00a0unseasonably high temperatures<\/a>\u00a0caused rapid snowmelt in April.<\/p>\n Heavy rainfall and extreme\u00a0winter storms<\/a>\u00a0can cause widespread damage to the\u00a0energy grid<\/a>\u00a0and significant flooding, and heighten the risk of\u00a0waterborne disease outbreaks<\/a>. These effects are particularly notable in\u00a0legacy Great Lakes cities<\/a>\u00a0with\u00a0aging energy<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0water infrastructure<\/a>.<\/p>\n Older cities tend to have older infrastructure that likely wasn\u2019t built to withstand more extreme weather events. They are now scrambling to\u00a0shore up<\/a>\u00a0their systems.<\/p>\n Many cities are investing in infrastructure upgrades, but\u00a0these upgrades tend to be fragmented<\/a>, are\u00a0not permanent fixes<\/a>\u00a0and often lack long-term funding. Typically, they also\u00a0are not broad enough<\/a>\u00a0to protect entire cities from the effects of climate change and can\u00a0exacerbate existing vulnerabilities<\/a>.<\/p>\n Electricity grids are extremely vulnerable to the mounting effects of severe thunderstorms and winter storms on\u00a0power lines<\/a>. Vermont and Michigan are ranked 45th and 46th among the states, respectively, in\u00a0electricity reliability<\/a>, which incorporates the frequency of outages and the time it takes utilities to restore power.<\/p>\n
Stormwater systems in the Great Lakes region also\u00a0regularly fail to keep pace<\/a>\u00a0with the heavy rainfall and rapid snowmelt\u00a0caused by climate change<\/a>. Stormwater systems are routinely designed in accordance with precipitation analyses from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called\u00a0Atlas 14<\/a>, which\u00a0don\u2019t account for climate change<\/a>. A\u00a0new version<\/a>\u00a0won\u2019t be available until 2026 at the earliest.<\/p>\n At the confluence of these infrastructure challenges is\u00a0more frequent<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0extensive<\/a>\u00a0urban\u00a0flooding<\/a>\u00a0in and around haven cities. An analysis by the\u00a0First Street Foundation<\/a>, which incorporates future climate projections into precipitation modeling, reveals that five of these six haven cities face moderate or major flood risk.<\/p>\n Disaster declaration data shows that the counties housing these six cities have experienced an average of six declarations for severe storms and flooding since 2000, about one every 3.9 years, and these are on the rise.<\/p>\n Intensified precipitation can further stress stormwater infrastructure, resulting in\u00a0basement flooding<\/a>,\u00a0contamination<\/a>\u00a0of\u00a0drinking water sources<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0cities<\/a>\u00a0with\u00a0legacy sewage systems<\/a>, and\u00a0hazardous road<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0highway<\/a>\u00a0flooding.\u00a0Transportation systems<\/a>\u00a0are also contending with\u00a0hotter temperatures<\/a>\u00a0and pavement not designed for extreme heat.<\/p>\n As these trends ramp up, cities everywhere will also have to pay attention to\u00a0systemic inequalities in vulnerability<\/a>\u00a0that often fall along lines of race, wealth and mobility.\u00a0Urban heat island effects<\/a>,\u00a0energy insecurity<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0heightened flood risk<\/a>\u00a0are just a few of the issues\u00a0intensified by climate change<\/a>\u00a0that tend to hit poor residents harder.<\/p>\n So, what is a haven city to do in the face of pressing climate changes and population influx?<\/p>\n Decision-makers can hope for the best, but must\u00a0plan for the worst<\/a>. That means working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are driving climate change, but also\u00a0assessing the community\u2019s physical infrastructure<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0social safety nets<\/a>\u00a0for\u00a0vulnerabilities that become more likely<\/a>\u00a0in a warming climate.<\/p>\n Collaborating across sectors is also essential. For example, a community may rely on the same\u00a0water resources<\/a>\u00a0for energy, drinking water and recreation. Climate change can affect all three.\u00a0Working across sectors<\/a>\u00a0and including community input in\u00a0planning for climate change<\/a>\u00a0can help highlight concerns early.<\/p>\n There are a number of innovative ways that cities can fund infrastructure projects, such as\u00a0public-private partnerships<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0green banks<\/a>\u00a0that help support sustainability projects.\u00a0DC Green Bank<\/a>\u00a0in Washington, D.C., for example, works with private companies to mobilize funding for natural stormwater management projects and energy efficiency.<\/p>\n Cities will have to remain vigilant about reducing emissions that contribute to climate change, and at the same time prepare for the climate risks creeping toward even the \u201cclimate havens\u201d of the globe.<\/p>\n This article was originally published on The Conversation<\/a>. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n![\"The](\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/211990\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced\")
The Conversation<\/a>, an online publication covering the latest research.<\/em><\/p>\nSix climate havens<\/h2>\n
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\n<\/figure>\nOlder infrastructure wasn\u2019t built for this<\/h2>\n
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\n<\/figure>\nWhat can cities do to prepare?<\/h2>\n